Fish Count Projections
A salmon wearing glasses and holding a tally clipboard, counting a school of salmon swimming past underwater.

Fish Count Projections

Historical run data and in-season projections for salmon counting locations. Pick a dataset below to see its counts.

37 rivers, 126 options

Kenai River (Late-Run Sockeye)

Daily sonar counts and an in-season run projection based on historical timing.

Season
2026
30 days of data
Count to date
968,423
through Jul 30, 2026
Projected season total
1,307,919
47 prior seasons used
% of projection reached
74%
avg. historical pace: 74% by this date
Projection method: for each prior season, we compute what fraction of that season's total run had passed by July 30, average those fractions, then divide this season's count-to-date by that average. It's a simple historical-timing estimate, not a statistical forecast — treat it as a rough in-season indicator.
2027 Projected Daily Counts▸
Each day's projection averages the analog years whose 2026 count-to-date shape (through July 30) most closely resembles this season's so far, regardless of overall run size (1999, 2007, 2023, 2006, 2017, 1998, 2019, 2021). Since 2027 itself has no data yet, this matches against 2026's partial season instead. This is computed across 8 prior seasons (1998–2023), applied to those seasons' average total of 2,336,298. It's a rough forecast for a season with no data yet — not a statistical model.
1 outlier year excluded (2025) — hover the "Exclude outliers" control for details.
Trend-adjusted: the anchor total is scaled by 1.39× based on a linear fit of season totals over time, instead of assuming 2027 looks like a flat average of the selected years.
DateProjected Daily CountProjected Cumulative
Aug 31, 2027 9,845 2,564,960
Aug 30, 2027 15,760 2,555,115
Aug 29, 2027 18,301 2,539,355
Aug 28, 2027 25,313 2,521,054
Aug 27, 2027 34,210 2,495,741
Aug 26, 2027 35,670 2,461,531
Aug 25, 2027 35,161 2,425,861
Aug 24, 2027 25,406 2,390,700
Aug 23, 2027 27,258 2,365,294
Aug 22, 2027 32,613 2,338,036
Aug 21, 2027 33,908 2,305,423
Aug 20, 2027 38,603 2,271,515
Aug 19, 2027 38,924 2,232,912
Aug 18, 2027 34,602 2,193,988
Aug 17, 2027 35,963 2,159,386
Aug 16, 2027 34,791 2,123,423
Aug 15, 2027 39,073 2,088,632
Aug 14, 2027 37,048 2,049,559
Aug 13, 2027 33,323 2,012,511
Aug 12, 2027 37,225 1,979,188
Aug 11, 2027 35,673 1,941,963
Aug 10, 2027 30,545 1,906,290
Aug 9, 2027 42,792 1,875,745
Aug 8, 2027 48,571 1,832,953
Aug 7, 2027 57,321 1,784,382
Aug 6, 2027 58,644 1,727,061
Aug 5, 2027 54,020 1,668,417
Aug 4, 2027 55,151 1,614,397
Aug 3, 2027 56,647 1,559,246
Aug 2, 2027 79,735 1,502,599
Aug 1, 2027 73,487 1,422,864
Jul 31, 2027 63,189 1,349,377
Jul 30, 2027 65,925 1,286,188
Jul 29, 2027 102,621 1,220,263
Jul 28, 2027 109,881 1,117,642
Jul 27, 2027 118,479 1,007,761
Jul 26, 2027 119,884 889,282
Jul 25, 2027 107,823 769,398
Jul 24, 2027 83,356 661,575
Jul 23, 2027 76,088 578,219
Jul 22, 2027 65,349 502,131
Jul 21, 2027 56,965 436,782
Jul 20, 2027 47,292 379,817
Jul 19, 2027 51,025 332,525
Jul 18, 2027 46,030 281,500
Jul 17, 2027 43,553 235,470
Jul 16, 2027 23,661 191,917
Jul 15, 2027 19,438 168,256
Jul 14, 2027 13,165 148,818
Jul 13, 2027 10,152 135,653
Jul 12, 2027 12,507 125,501
Jul 11, 2027 11,428 112,994
Jul 10, 2027 15,493 101,566
Jul 9, 2027 17,048 86,073
Jul 8, 2027 15,186 69,025
Jul 7, 2027 11,343 53,839
Jul 6, 2027 9,075 42,496
Jul 5, 2027 7,588 33,421
Jul 4, 2027 6,946 25,833
Jul 3, 2027 6,251 18,887
Jul 2, 2027 6,946 12,636
Jul 1, 2027 5,690 5,690

Highlighted cells are the top 5 projected daily counts.

2026 Daily Counts▸
Every calendar day of the season gets a projected value, shown alongside the actual count for days we've already counted (through July 30), so you can compare actual vs. projected directly. Each day's projection averages the analog years whose count-to-date shape (through July 30) most closely resembles 2026's so far, regardless of overall run size (1999, 2007, 2023, 2006, 2017, 1998, 2019, 2021). This is computed across 8 prior seasons (1998–2023), applied to those seasons' average total of 2,294,843. It's a rough forecast, not a statistical model.
1 outlier year excluded (2025) — hover the "Exclude outliers" control for details.
Trend-adjusted: the anchor total is scaled by 1.36× based on a linear fit of season totals over time.
Date Actual Daily Count Projected Daily Count Actual Cumulative Projected Cumulative
Aug 31, 2026 — 9,671 — 2,519,447
Aug 30, 2026 — 15,480 — 2,509,776
Aug 29, 2026 — 17,977 — 2,494,296
Aug 28, 2026 — 24,863 — 2,476,319
Aug 27, 2026 — 33,603 — 2,451,456
Aug 26, 2026 — 35,037 — 2,417,853
Aug 25, 2026 — 34,537 — 2,382,816
Aug 24, 2026 — 24,955 — 2,348,279
Aug 23, 2026 — 26,774 — 2,323,324
Aug 22, 2026 — 32,034 — 2,296,550
Aug 21, 2026 — 33,306 — 2,264,516
Aug 20, 2026 — 37,918 — 2,231,210
Aug 19, 2026 — 38,234 — 2,193,292
Aug 18, 2026 — 33,988 — 2,155,058
Aug 17, 2026 — 35,325 — 2,121,070
Aug 16, 2026 — 34,174 — 2,085,745
Aug 15, 2026 — 38,379 — 2,051,571
Aug 14, 2026 — 36,390 — 2,013,192
Aug 13, 2026 — 32,732 — 1,976,802
Aug 12, 2026 — 36,565 — 1,944,070
Aug 11, 2026 — 35,040 — 1,907,505
Aug 10, 2026 — 30,003 — 1,872,465
Aug 9, 2026 — 42,032 — 1,842,462
Aug 8, 2026 — 47,709 — 1,800,430
Aug 7, 2026 — 56,304 — 1,752,721
Aug 6, 2026 — 57,604 — 1,696,417
Aug 5, 2026 — 53,062 — 1,638,813
Aug 4, 2026 — 54,172 — 1,585,751
Aug 3, 2026 — 55,641 — 1,531,579
Aug 2, 2026 — 78,320 — 1,475,938
Aug 1, 2026 — 72,183 — 1,397,618
Jul 31, 2026 — 62,067 — 1,325,435
Jul 30, 2026 28,134 64,755 968,423 1,263,368
Jul 29, 2026 31,082 100,800 940,289 1,198,613
Jul 28, 2026 60,835 107,931 909,207 1,097,813
Jul 27, 2026 97,202 116,377 848,372 989,882
Jul 26, 2026 152,343 117,757 751,170 873,505
Jul 25, 2026 159,801 105,910 598,827 755,748
Jul 24, 2026 171,844 81,877 439,026 649,838
Jul 23, 2026 26,784 74,738 267,182 567,961
Jul 22, 2026 11,603 64,190 240,398 493,223
Jul 21, 2026 18,040 55,954 228,795 429,033
Jul 20, 2026 17,231 46,453 210,755 373,079
Jul 19, 2026 23,584 50,120 193,524 326,626
Jul 18, 2026 15,995 45,213 169,940 276,506
Jul 17, 2026 14,545 42,780 153,945 231,293
Jul 16, 2026 9,705 23,241 139,400 188,513
Jul 15, 2026 9,366 19,093 129,695 165,272
Jul 14, 2026 13,100 12,932 120,329 146,179
Jul 13, 2026 9,637 9,972 107,229 133,247
Jul 12, 2026 8,277 12,285 97,592 123,275
Jul 11, 2026 10,139 11,225 89,315 110,990
Jul 10, 2026 11,080 15,218 79,176 99,765
Jul 9, 2026 12,048 16,746 68,096 84,547
Jul 8, 2026 9,028 14,917 56,048 67,801
Jul 7, 2026 6,708 11,141 47,020 52,884
Jul 6, 2026 5,024 8,914 40,312 41,743
Jul 5, 2026 7,729 7,454 35,288 32,829
Jul 4, 2026 10,893 6,823 27,559 25,375
Jul 3, 2026 7,651 6,140 16,666 18,552
Jul 2, 2026 3,598 6,823 9,015 12,412
Jul 1, 2026 5,417 5,589 5,417 5,589

Highlighted cells are the top 5 actual and top 5 projected daily counts.

Backtest a Prior Year▸
This uses only years strictly before 2025 as the reference pool (46 available, 1979–2024) — 2025 itself is never used to predict itself, so this is a genuine out-of-sample test of the projection method.
Each day's projection averages the analog years whose count-to-date shape (through August 19) most closely resembles 2025's, regardless of overall run size (1998, 1999, 2007, 2019, 2008, 2004, 2022). Computed across 7 prior seasons (1998–2022), applied to those seasons' average total of 1,743,902.
2 outlier years excluded (2023, 2021).
Trend-adjusted: anchor total scaled by 1.25×.
Date Actual Daily Count Projected Daily Count Actual Cumulative Projected Cumulative
Aug 23, 2025 — 12,989 — 1,822,983
Aug 22, 2025 — 12,518 — 1,809,994
Aug 21, 2025 — 13,076 — 1,797,476
Aug 20, 2025 — 20,901 — 1,784,400
Aug 19, 2025 20,827 15,620 4,286,091 1,763,499
Aug 18, 2025 28,567 13,157 4,265,264 1,747,879
Aug 17, 2025 32,597 13,142 4,236,697 1,734,722
Aug 16, 2025 50,151 13,977 4,204,100 1,721,580
Aug 15, 2025 29,034 19,198 4,153,949 1,707,603
Aug 14, 2025 37,225 19,616 4,124,915 1,688,405
Aug 13, 2025 35,230 23,084 4,087,690 1,668,789
Aug 12, 2025 49,936 31,978 4,052,460 1,645,705
Aug 11, 2025 52,654 31,756 4,002,524 1,613,727
Aug 10, 2025 41,336 28,442 3,949,870 1,581,971
Aug 9, 2025 49,203 31,304 3,908,534 1,553,529
Aug 8, 2025 79,234 27,429 3,859,331 1,522,225
Aug 7, 2025 75,746 33,153 3,780,097 1,494,796
Aug 6, 2025 64,587 38,242 3,704,351 1,461,643
Aug 5, 2025 108,352 35,866 3,639,764 1,423,401
Aug 4, 2025 108,821 36,869 3,531,412 1,387,535
Aug 3, 2025 115,164 34,335 3,422,591 1,350,666
Aug 2, 2025 138,734 53,604 3,307,427 1,316,331
Aug 1, 2025 195,096 50,910 3,168,693 1,262,727
Jul 31, 2025 149,772 41,361 2,973,597 1,211,817
Jul 30, 2025 129,028 47,938 2,823,825 1,170,456
Jul 29, 2025 104,694 62,465 2,694,797 1,122,518
Jul 28, 2025 175,825 73,853 2,590,103 1,060,053
Jul 27, 2025 249,944 79,140 2,414,278 986,200
Jul 26, 2025 170,918 65,836 2,164,334 907,060
Jul 25, 2025 129,762 72,642 1,993,416 841,224
Jul 24, 2025 159,649 71,667 1,863,654 768,582
Jul 23, 2025 191,691 68,531 1,704,005 696,915
Jul 22, 2025 177,441 88,365 1,512,314 628,384
Jul 21, 2025 247,783 75,196 1,334,873 540,019
Jul 20, 2025 212,676 65,764 1,087,090 464,823
Jul 19, 2025 163,792 55,160 874,414 399,059
Jul 18, 2025 118,413 44,744 710,622 343,899
Jul 17, 2025 121,741 57,073 592,209 299,155
Jul 16, 2025 108,708 56,951 470,468 242,082
Jul 15, 2025 51,443 46,721 361,760 185,131
Jul 14, 2025 23,100 30,868 310,317 138,410
Jul 13, 2025 24,964 9,506 287,217 107,542
Jul 12, 2025 30,484 8,711 262,253 98,036
Jul 11, 2025 24,756 9,506 231,769 89,325
Jul 10, 2025 45,638 11,966 207,013 79,819
Jul 9, 2025 43,876 12,359 161,375 67,853
Jul 8, 2025 29,398 12,043 117,499 55,494
Jul 7, 2025 23,075 9,097 88,101 43,451
Jul 6, 2025 15,322 6,940 65,026 34,354
Jul 5, 2025 14,263 5,205 49,704 27,414
Jul 4, 2025 12,744 5,006 35,441 22,209
Jul 3, 2025 8,233 5,784 22,697 17,203
Jul 2, 2025 7,152 6,134 14,464 11,419
Jul 1, 2025 7,312 5,285 7,312 5,285

Highlighted cells are the top 5 actual and top 5 projected daily counts for 2025.

Historical Season Totals

YearSeason TotalCount Through Jul 30% Complete by Then
2025 4,286,091 2,823,825 65.9%
2024 1,926,350 1,649,004 85.6%
2023 2,351,020 1,251,726 53.2%
2022 1,567,750 1,192,013 76%
2021 2,441,825 845,960 34.6%
2020 1,714,565 647,489 37.8%
2019 1,849,054 1,090,452 59%
2018 1,035,761 434,168 41.9%
2017 1,308,498 716,826 54.8%
2016 1,383,692 876,681 63.4%
2015 1,709,053 869,064 50.9%
2014 1,523,155 825,892 54.2%
2013 1,359,893 1,257,722 92.5%
2012 1,581,555 1,311,247 82.9%
2011 1,599,217 1,399,069 87.5%
2010 1,294,885 971,292 75%
2009 1,090,057 865,300 79.4%
2008 917,138 646,113 70.4%
2007 1,229,944 764,272 62.1%
2006 2,064,726 830,013 40.2%
2005 1,908,823 1,122,504 58.8%
2004 1,945,383 1,279,807 65.8%
2003 1,656,026 1,427,314 86.2%
2002 1,339,681 1,055,677 78.8%
2001 906,333 735,522 81.2%
2000 900,695 798,110 88.6%
1999 1,137,003 815,253 71.7%
1998 1,084,993 702,382 64.7%
1997 1,512,731 1,041,305 68.8%
1996 1,129,274 906,603 80.3%
1995 884,922 711,802 80.4%
1994 1,412,050 670,257 47.5%
1993 1,134,923 908,429 80%
1992 1,429,867 1,193,747 83.5%
1991 954,841 748,486 78.4%
1990 950,357 805,317 84.7%
1989 2,295,575 1,953,946 85.1%
1988 1,356,958 1,214,042 89.5%
1987 2,245,610 1,787,323 79.6%
1986 645,906 620,341 96%
1985 680,897 637,229 93.6%
1984 481,470 459,757 95.5%
1983 866,453 766,144 88.4%
1982 809,174 778,590 96.2%
1981 575,847 562,647 97.7%
1980 667,470 641,728 96.1%
1979 412,979 394,134 95.4%